Technology

🛵

Will Grab remain the #1 food delivery app by orders this quarter?

App store + order volume tracker.

71.0%

Jul 5, 12:44 PM

฿636.2K total volume 271 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 71%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being promo spend this quarter.

Confidence in current pricing61%

Bull case

  • Promo spend this quarter points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Restaurant partner exclusivity deals could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Promo spend this quarterRestaurant partner exclusivity deals

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Comments

🪷
🦜

Sirikorn Lohachai· 18h

market's asleep on this one, free money

🎏

Busaba Phromwong· 18h

Volume just spiked, something's moving

3 replies
🛺

Suchada Srisawat· 1d

This aged well

🐉

Suchada Suksawat· 1d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

3 replies
🎆

Chalermchai Kittiya· 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

2 replies
🐘

Pongsakorn Chaiyaporn· 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

4 replies
🏵️

Teerapat Nakornthap· 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🦋

Somsak Sombat· 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this