Tourism

🛂

Will the visa-free stay extension to 60 days be renewed past its review date?

Immigration policy tracker.

59.0%

Jul 5, 12:42 PM

฿797K total volume 320 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 59%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being tourism industry lobbying.

Confidence in current pricing66%

Bull case

  • Tourism industry lobbying points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Prior extension track record could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Tourism industry lobbyingPrior extension track record

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Comments

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🛕

Nutthida Peeranan· 11h

This aged... not great

🛕

Ratana Boonmee· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

GIF
🌊

Sakda Tantivejkul· 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🎋

Nichakan Amnuay· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
🏝️

Pimchanok Lohachai· 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

GIF
2 replies
🎏

Napat Rattanakosin· 2d

This aged... not great