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Will PromptPay transaction volume set a new national record this month?

Digital payments tracker.

72.0%

Jul 5, 12:32 PM

฿104.5K total volume 269 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 72%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being seasonal spending patterns.

Confidence in current pricing71%

Bull case

  • Seasonal spending patterns points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Merchant adoption growth could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Seasonal spending patternsMerchant adoption growth

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Comments

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Apinya Boonmee· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming