Bangkok

๐Ÿšˆ

Will the BTS Gold Line extension open to the public before its latest deadline?

Transit construction tracker.

64.0%

Jul 5, 12:40 PM

เธฟ778.3K total volume 226 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 64%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being contractor progress reports.

Confidence in current pricing75%

Bull case

  • Contractor progress reports points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • History of BMA deadline slippage could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Contractor progress reportsHistory of BMA deadline slippage

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŽ†

Kamon Thongchaiยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐ŸŽ†

Thanawat Kittiyaยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this