Bangkok

๐ŸŒซ๏ธ

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Air quality forecast market.

42.0%

Jul 5, 12:39 PM

เธฟ568.4K total volume 87 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 42%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being burning season activity upcountry.

Confidence in current pricing88%

Bull case

  • Burning season activity upcountry points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Wind pattern forecasts could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Burning season activity upcountryWind pattern forecasts

Related news

NNikkei Asiaยท 2d

Explainer: the numbers behind "Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?"

Local reporting adds context that could reshape expectations heading into the resolution window.

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?42%

Related markets

Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐Ÿชท

Darika Suksawatยท 3h

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

๐ŸŒถ๏ธ

Patcharee Amnuayยท 3h

This aged... not great

9 replies
๐ŸŽ†

Worawit Boonmeeยท 7h

Volume just spiked, something's moving

3 replies
๐Ÿฆ‹

Somsak Sombatยท 8h

Bought more on the dip

๐Ÿœ

Arthit Kanjanapasยท 19h

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
๐ŸŽ‹

Kritsada Praditpongยท 21h

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

1 replies
๐Ÿ‰

Duangjai Tantivejkulยท 21h

This aged... not great

GIF
6 replies
๐ŸŽ†

Weerapong Wongsawangยท 1d

This aged... not great

1 replies
๐Ÿฅ

Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐Ÿ…

Nirun Ruangritยท 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Aksornยท 1d

This aged well

๐Ÿฆ‹

Chalermchai Lohachaiยท 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

๐ŸŽ†

Worawit Boonmeeยท 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

๐Ÿฆ‹

Patcharee Jaideeยท 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

3 replies
๐Ÿฏ

Panupong Praditpongยท 2d

This aged well

๐Ÿต๏ธ

Teerapat Nakornthapยท 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

1 replies
โ›ต

Weerapong Boonmeeยท 2d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

๐ŸŽ‹

Apinya Boonmeeยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

2 replies
๐Ÿœ

Duangjai Charoenkulยท 2d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

GIF
๐Ÿ˜

Suchada Amnuayยท 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

2 replies
๐Ÿ˜

Pongsakorn Chaiyapornยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

4 replies
๐ŸŒ™

Weerapong Tantivejkulยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

1 replies
๐Ÿœ

Waraporn Srisawatยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

7 replies
๐Ÿ๏ธ

Nattapong Rattanakosinยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

๐Ÿฅ

Pongsakorn Chotirosseraneeยท 3d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

๐Ÿฅญ

Ampai Kanjanapasยท 3d

This aged... not great

GIF
6 replies
๐Ÿต๏ธ

Teerapat Nakornthapยท 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
๐Ÿ๏ธ

Pimchanok Lohachaiยท 3d

This aged well

๐ŸŒŠ

Sakda Tantivejkulยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

๐Ÿชท

Darika Suksawatยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

1 replies
๐Ÿœ

Duangjai Charoenkulยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

5 replies
โ˜€๏ธ

Napat Peerananยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
โ˜€๏ธ

Chanya Thongchaiยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

2 replies
๐Ÿ‰

Duangjai Tantivejkulยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

2 replies
๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Aksornยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

๐Ÿฅญ

Ampai Kanjanapasยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐Ÿ๏ธ

Preecha Tantivejkulยท 3d

This aged... not great

๐ŸŒพ

Malee Sombatยท 3d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

GIF
3 replies
๐Ÿฅ

Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

10 replies
๐ŸŒถ๏ธ

Patcharee Amnuayยท 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

3 replies