Tourism

🛂Live

Will the visa-free stay extension to 60 days be renewed past its review date?

Immigration policy tracker.

79.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

฿306.9K total volume 111 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 79%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being tourism industry lobbying.

Confidence in current pricing66%

Bull case

  • Tourism industry lobbying points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Prior extension track record could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Tourism industry lobbyingPrior extension track record

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Comments

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🐘

Pongsakorn Chaiyaporn· 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

🥁

Yupa Maneerat· 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

3 replies