Bangkok

🌫️

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Air quality forecast market.

36.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

฿148.1K total volume 306 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 36%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being burning season activity upcountry.

Confidence in current pricing76%

Bull case

  • Burning season activity upcountry points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Wind pattern forecasts could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Burning season activity upcountryWind pattern forecasts

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Comments

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🌙

Weerapong Tantivejkul· 16h

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

GIF
🎆

Thanawat Kittiya· 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

2 replies
🎏

Napat Rattanakosin· 1d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

2 replies
🎆

Worawit Boonmee· 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

2 replies
🛺

Weerapong Ruangrit· 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

1 replies