Business

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Will Thailand's minimum wage increase by more than 5% this cycle?

Labor policy tracker.

32.0%

Jul 5, 12:31 PM

เธฟ67.5K total volume 56 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 32%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being tripartite wage committee signals.

Confidence in current pricing94%

Bull case

  • Tripartite wage committee signals points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Inflation pressure on negotiations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Tripartite wage committee signalsInflation pressure on negotiations

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Comments

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Sakda Rattanakosinยท 12h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Duangjai Charoenkulยท 22h

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

GIF
3 replies
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Thanawat Peerananยท 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

2 replies
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Teerapat Praditpongยท 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Kwan Lohachaiยท 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

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Apinya Thongchaiยท 1d

Bought more on the dip

๐Ÿฅ

Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

1 replies
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Rungnapha Suksawatยท 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

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Benyapa Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

2 replies
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Teerapat Nakornthapยท 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Benyapa Chotirosseraneeยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Arthit Kanjanapasยท 2d

Bought more on the dip

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Teerapat Praditpongยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

2 replies
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Duangjai Tantivejkulยท 2d

This aged... not great

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Nutthida Peerananยท 3d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Patcharee Lohachaiยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

3 replies