Bangkok

🌧️

Will the Bangkok Governor announce a new flood-prevention budget above ฿5 billion?

City hall budget watch.

35.0%

Jul 5, 12:33 PM

฿17.7K total volume 267 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 35%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being monsoon season severity so far.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Monsoon season severity so far points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Prior year budget precedent could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Monsoon season severity so farPrior year budget precedent

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Comments

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🌶️

Patcharee Rattanakosin· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🎋

Apinya Boonmee· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money