Economy

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Will the Bank of Thailand cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

BOT Monetary Policy Committee decision.

28.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

฿32.9M total volume 144 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 28%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest inflation print.

Confidence in current pricing78%

Bull case

Latest inflation print points toward Yes resolving true.
Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

Baht strength versus regional peers could flip this quickly.
Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.

Latest inflation printBaht strength versus regional peers