Economy

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Will the Bank of Thailand cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

BOT Monetary Policy Committee decision.

53.0%

Jul 5, 12:32 PM

฿59.2M total volume 173 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 53%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest inflation print.

Confidence in current pricing72%

Bull case

  • Latest inflation print points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Baht strength versus regional peers could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest inflation printBaht strength versus regional peers

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Comments

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Ampai Srisawat· 19h

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

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Sakda Rattanakosin· 19h

This is way too high, fading this all day

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Chotiwut Sombat· 22h

This aged well

3 replies
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Darika Suksawat· 1d

This aged... not great

🐉

Ladda Suksawat· 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

7 replies
🐅

Nirun Ruangrit· 1d

Bought more on the dip

GIF
🌊

Kamon Thongchai· 1d

This aged well

🐉

Ladda Jaidee· 2d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

3 replies
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Sakda Rattanakosin· 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

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Pimchanok Sombat· 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

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Pimchanok Sombat· 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

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Pimchanok Chaiyaporn· 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🌊

Orawan Kanjanapas· 2d

Bought more on the dip

🦋

Duangjai Sirikaya· 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🎆

Waraporn Srisawat· 3d

This aged... not great

2 replies
🏯

Panupong Praditpong· 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🦜

Suchada Wongsawang· 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

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Suchada Suksawat· 3d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🎆

Waraporn Srisawat· 3d

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
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Chotiwut Sombat· 3d

This aged well