Economy

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Will the Bank of Thailand cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

BOT Monetary Policy Committee decision.

39.0%

Jul 5, 12:35 PM

฿49.3M total volume 214 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 39%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest inflation print.

Confidence in current pricing86%

Bull case

  • Latest inflation print points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Baht strength versus regional peers could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest inflation printBaht strength versus regional peers

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Comments

🪷
🌊

Patcharee Lohachai· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

2 replies
🌾

Anucha Pattaranutaporn· 1d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

2 replies
🌶️

Orawan Chaiyaporn· 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

3 replies
🐢

Suchada Charoenkul· 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🐉

Suchada Sombat· 3d

This aged... not great

GIF