Bangkok

๐Ÿšˆ

Will the BTS Orange Line extension open to the public before its latest deadline?

Transit construction tracker.

62.0%

Jul 5, 12:42 PM

เธฟ265.4K total volume 241 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 62%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being contractor progress reports.

Confidence in current pricing85%

Bull case

  • Contractor progress reports points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • History of BMA deadline slippage could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Contractor progress reportsHistory of BMA deadline slippage

Related markets

๐ŸšˆBangkok

Will the BTS Gold Line extension open to the public before its latest deadline?

Yes64%+1
No36%+2
เธฟ778.3K vol
226
๐ŸšˆBangkok

Will the BTS Gold Line extension open to the public before its latest deadline?

Yes64%+4
No36%+1
เธฟ638.9K vol
249
๐ŸŒซ๏ธBangkok

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Yes72%-5
No28%+1
เธฟ606.7K vol
190
๐ŸŒซ๏ธBangkokAI

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Yes42%+0
No58%+2
เธฟ568.4K vol
87
๐ŸšˆBangkok

Will the BTS Orange Line extension open to the public before its latest deadline?

Yes55%-1
No45%+5
เธฟ513.8K vol
84

Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐Ÿ‰

Ladda Jaideeยท 1d

This aged well

๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Aksornยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

๐ŸŒพ

Anong Ruangritยท 3d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

2 replies