Tourism

🛂

Will the visa-free stay extension to 60 days be renewed past its review date?

Immigration policy tracker.

61.0%

Jul 5, 12:40 PM

฿474.5K total volume 79 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 61%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being tourism industry lobbying.

Confidence in current pricing60%

Bull case

  • Tourism industry lobbying points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Prior extension track record could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Tourism industry lobbyingPrior extension track record

Related news

BBloomberg· 2d

Analysts split on will the visa-free stay extension to 60 days be renewed past its review date

Officials have not yet commented, but early indicators suggest a shift is underway.

Will the visa-free stay extension to 60 days be renewed past its review date?61%

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