Bangkok

🌫️

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Air quality forecast market.

63.0%

Jul 5, 12:34 PM

฿346.4K total volume 300 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 63%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being burning season activity upcountry.

Confidence in current pricing62%

Bull case

  • Burning season activity upcountry points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Wind pattern forecasts could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Burning season activity upcountryWind pattern forecasts

Related news

RReuters· 2d

Traders react as odds shift on: Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?

Independent analysts remain divided, citing conflicting signals from the last two weeks of reporting.

Will Bangkok's PM2.5 index exceed 'unhealthy' levels on New Year's Eve?63%

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Comments

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Suriya Wongprasert· 1h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🌶️

Patcharee Amnuay· 3h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

GIF
🦜

Sirikorn Lohachai· 4h

This aged well

8 replies
🏝️

Apinya Thongchai· 9h

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🥭

Rungnapha Suksawat· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🐢

Suchada Charoenkul· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🛺

Suchada Srisawat· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money