Asia

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Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Regional macro that moves Thai exports.

55.0%

Jul 5, 12:29 PM

เธฟ4.3M total volume 103 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 55%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being factory pmi trend.

Confidence in current pricing86%

Bull case

  • Factory PMI trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Property sector stabilization could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Factory PMI trendProperty sector stabilization

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