Asia

๐Ÿค

Will Singapore announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year?

ASEAN diplomacy tracker.

40.0%

Jul 5, 12:45 PM

เธฟ109.1K total volume 65 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 40%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent bilateral summit tone.

Confidence in current pricing81%

Bull case

  • Recent bilateral summit tone points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Regional trade bloc momentum could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent bilateral summit toneRegional trade bloc momentum

Related markets

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณAsia

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Yes61%-4
No39%+2
เธฟ4.8M vol
273
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณAsiaAI

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Yes44%+0
No56%+3
เธฟ4.4M vol
312
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณAsiaAI

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Yes55%+5
No45%+2
เธฟ4.3M vol
103
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณAsia

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Yes46%-5
No54%+5
เธฟ4M vol
51
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณAsia

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Yes38%+2
No62%+2
เธฟ3.2M vol
305

Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŒถ๏ธ

Patcharee Amnuayยท 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

10 replies
๐Ÿฆœ

Preecha Chaiyapornยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced