Asia

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Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Regional macro that moves Thai exports.

46.0%

Jul 5, 12:34 PM

เธฟ4M total volume 51 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 46%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being factory pmi trend.

Confidence in current pricing62%

Bull case

  • Factory PMI trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Property sector stabilization could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Factory PMI trendProperty sector stabilization

Related news

CCoconuts Bangkokยท 15h

What to know before will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter

Local reporting adds context that could reshape expectations heading into the resolution window.

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?46%

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Comments

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Teerapat Nakornthapยท 1h

Bought more on the dip

2 replies
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Ratana Boonmeeยท 4h

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

GIF
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Chayapa Kittiyaยท 7h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

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Duangjai Kittiyaยท 12h

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Panupong Thongchaiยท 13h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

7 replies
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Suriya Wongprasertยท 18h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

2 replies
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Thanawat Peerananยท 22h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
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Nichakan Amnuayยท 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

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Yupa Maneeratยท 1d

Bought more on the dip

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Panupong Thongchaiยท 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Kritsada Praditpongยท 1d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

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Panupong Thongchaiยท 1d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

2 replies
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Suchada Wongsawangยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Duangjai Tantivejkulยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Napat Phromwongยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

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Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 2d

This aged... not great

3 replies
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Anucha Pattaranutapornยท 3d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

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Duangjai Charoenkulยท 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

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Sakda Tantivejkulยท 3d

This aged well