Asia

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Will China's GDP growth print above 5% this quarter?

Regional macro that moves Thai exports.

44.0%

Jul 5, 12:44 PM

เธฟ4.4M total volume 312 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 44%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being factory pmi trend.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Factory PMI trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Property sector stabilization could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Factory PMI trendProperty sector stabilization

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Comments

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Suriya Wongprasertยท 8h

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐Ÿœ

Arthit Kanjanapasยท 17h

This is way too high, fading this all day

1 replies
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Anucha Aksornยท 23h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

1 replies
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Somsak Sombatยท 1d

This aged... not great

9 replies
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Panupong Praditpongยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

3 replies
๐Ÿฅ

Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

9 replies
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Patcharee Pattaranutapornยท 3d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

7 replies