Asia

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Will Laos announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year?

ASEAN diplomacy tracker.

27.0%

Jul 5, 12:25 PM

เธฟ47.3K total volume 197 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 27%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent bilateral summit tone.

Confidence in current pricing62%

Bull case

  • Recent bilateral summit tone points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Regional trade bloc momentum could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent bilateral summit toneRegional trade bloc momentum

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Comments

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Anucha Pattaranutapornยท 17h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

5 replies
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Panupong Thongchaiยท 20h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

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Pimchanok Sombatยท 20h

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Benyapa Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

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Napat Phromwongยท 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

6 replies
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Darika Suksawatยท 1d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

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Weerapong Ruangritยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Somsak Sombatยท 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Busaba Phromwongยท 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

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Chanya Thongchaiยท 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Waraporn Srisawatยท 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

1 replies
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Duangjai Kittiyaยท 3d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

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Arthit Kanjanapasยท 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

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Nirun Ruangritยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly