Thailand Politics

📜

Will Mayor Ratchanee Kanjanapas survive a no-confidence motion this session?

Parliamentary vote outcome.

79.0%

Jul 5, 12:26 PM

฿358.5K total volume 288 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 79%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being whip discipline within the coalition.

Confidence in current pricing88%

Bull case

  • Whip discipline within the coalition points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Opposition unity on the motion could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Whip discipline within the coalitionOpposition unity on the motion

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Comments

🪷
🥭

Rungnapha Suksawat· 12h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

7 replies
🦜

Anong Sirikaya· 20h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

1 replies
🏝️

Nattapong Rattanakosin· 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

1 replies
🎆

Weerapong Wongsawang· 2d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

3 replies
🐘

Duangjai Kittiya· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

GIF
🐢

Preecha Ruangrit· 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

3 replies