Thailand Politics

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Will the Naam Jai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Coalition math, resolved by seat count.

28.0%

Jul 5, 12:43 PM

฿4.5M total volume 155 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 28%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being coalition whip counts.

Confidence in current pricing93%

Bull case

  • Coalition whip counts points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Recent by-election swings could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Coalition whip countsRecent by-election swings

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Comments

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Busaba Phromwong· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this