Thailand Politics

🏛️

Will the Sayam Kao Na Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Coalition math, resolved by seat count.

66.0%

Jul 5, 12:44 PM

฿3.7M total volume 14 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 66%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being coalition whip counts.

Confidence in current pricing60%

Bull case

  • Coalition whip counts points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Recent by-election swings could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Coalition whip countsRecent by-election swings

Related markets

⚖️PoliticsAI

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review?

Yes29%-1
No71%-4
฿4.8M vol
57
🏛️PoliticsAI

Will the Naam Jai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Yes28%+4
No72%-3
฿4.5M vol
155
⚖️Politics

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Ruang Rung Party for review?

Yes57%+5
No43%+4
฿4M vol
296
⚖️Politics

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Kao Klai Party Party for review?

Yes62%-1
No38%-3
฿3.5M vol
75
⚖️PoliticsLiveAI

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review?

Yes56%-2
No44%-3
฿3M vol
157

Comments

🪷
🐢

Ittipol Suriyachai· 12h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

1 replies
☀️

Napat Peeranan· 22h

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🐢

Ittipol Suriyachai· 1d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

🏵️

Anucha Aksorn· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🌙

Chayapa Kittiya· 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

3 replies
🥁

Yupa Aksorn· 3d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

3 replies