Thailand Politics

⚖️

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Ruang Rung Party for review?

Court docket watch.

57.0%

Jul 5, 12:29 PM

฿4M total volume 296 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 57%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being precedent from similar past petitions.

Confidence in current pricing69%

Bull case

  • Precedent from similar past petitions points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Political pressure on the court's calendar could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Precedent from similar past petitionsPolitical pressure on the court's calendar

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Comments

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⛵

Weerapong Boonmee· 22h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🐉

Ladda Jaidee· 1d

This aged... not great

🍜

Arthit Kanjanapas· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

GIF
🥭

Rungnapha Suksawat· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🌙

Weerapong Tantivejkul· 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🦜

Sirikorn Lohachai· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

3 replies
🎆

Thanawat Kittiya· 3d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

3 replies