Asia

๐Ÿค

Will Myanmar announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year?

ASEAN diplomacy tracker.

25.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

เธฟ93.3K total volume 262 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 25%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent bilateral summit tone.

Confidence in current pricing81%

Bull case

  • Recent bilateral summit tone points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Regional trade bloc momentum could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent bilateral summit toneRegional trade bloc momentum

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Maneeratยท 15h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

3 replies
๐Ÿฅญ

Ampai Kanjanapasยท 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+