Economy

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Will Thailand's Q4 GDP growth come in above 3.1%?

NESDC quarterly release.

46.0%

Jul 5, 12:35 PM

฿2M total volume 199 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 46%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being export data trending into the print.

Confidence in current pricing71%

Bull case

Export data trending into the print points toward Yes resolving true.
Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

Tourism recovery pace could flip this quickly.
Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.

Export data trending into the printTourism recovery pace