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Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review?

Court docket watch.

56.0%

Jul 5, 12:41 PM

฿3M total volume 157 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 56%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being precedent from similar past petitions.

Confidence in current pricing93%

Bull case

  • Precedent from similar past petitions points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Political pressure on the court's calendar could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Precedent from similar past petitionsPolitical pressure on the court's calendar

Related news

RReuters· 1d

What to know before will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review

Officials have not yet commented, but early indicators suggest a shift is underway.

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review?56%

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Comments

🪷
🐢

Suchada Charoenkul· 1h

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🦜

Preecha Chaiyaporn· 14h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🦋

Somsak Sombat· 16h

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

🏵️

Teerapat Nakornthap· 19h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🏝️

Preecha Tantivejkul· 19h

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

🌊

Kamon Thongchai· 19h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🏵️

Anucha Aksorn· 20h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🌶️

Orawan Chaiyaporn· 22h

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🎆

Weerapong Wongsawang· 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

🐢

Suchada Charoenkul· 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

3 replies
🎆

Teerapat Praditpong· 1d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

1 replies
🏵️

Ampai Srisawat· 1d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

🎏

Napat Rattanakosin· 1d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

🌾

Malee Sombat· 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

🐅

Chanya Sombat· 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

☀️

Chanya Thongchai· 1d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🏵️

Ampai Srisawat· 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

1 replies
🌊

Orawan Kanjanapas· 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

GIF
🐢

Ittipol Suriyachai· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

1 replies
🏵️

Anucha Aksorn· 2d

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
🍜

Arthit Kanjanapas· 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

🏝️

Nirun Nakornthap· 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

3 replies
🐘

Suchada Amnuay· 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🥁

Kamon Chotirosseranee· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🦜

Anong Sirikaya· 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🦋

Chalermchai Lohachai· 3d

Bought more on the dip

🦜

Worawit Pattaranutaporn· 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
🌊

Orawan Kanjanapas· 3d

This aged... not great

🐅

Chanya Sombat· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

3 replies
🛺

Suchada Srisawat· 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🌾

Anucha Pattaranutaporn· 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🏵️

Sakda Rattanakosin· 3d

Bought more on the dip

1 replies
🐘

Somchai Jaidee· 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

2 replies