Economy

💱

Will USD/THB close above 36.00 by month end?

Baht exchange rate market.

60.0%

Jul 5, 12:31 PM

฿4.8M total volume 337 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 60%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being fed rate path expectations.

Confidence in current pricing92%

Bull case

  • Fed rate path expectations points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Tourism dollar inflows could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Fed rate path expectationsTourism dollar inflows

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Comments

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Nirun Ruangrit· 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

3 replies