Entertainment

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Best Actor at this year's Suphannahong Awards: Ploy Nattharika or Bank Kittisak?

Award season market.

41.5%

Jul 5, 12:30 PM

เธฟ4.1M total volume 67 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 42%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being critic screening reactions.

Confidence in current pricing74%

Bull case

  • Critic screening reactions points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Box office performance this year could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Critic screening reactionsBox office performance this year

Related markets

Comments

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Orawan Kanjanapasยท 8h

This aged well

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Ampai Srisawatยท 16h

This aged... not great

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Suchada Sombatยท 1d

This aged well

3 replies
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Worawit Pattaranutapornยท 1d

Bought more on the dip

GIF
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Worawit Jaideeยท 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

GIF
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Pongsakorn Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

3 replies
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Weerapong Tantivejkulยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Sirikorn Lohachaiยท 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

GIF
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Pimchanok Lohachaiยท 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
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Patcharee Amnuayยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Duangjai Amnuayยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Pongsakorn Chaiyapornยท 3d

This aged... not great

8 replies
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Duangjai Charoenkulยท 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

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Orawan Chaiyapornยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

9 replies