Weather

๐ŸŒ€

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Storm track prediction.

32.0%

Jul 5, 12:45 PM

เธฟ431.4K total volume 116 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 32%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current storm formation in the south china sea.

Confidence in current pricing82%

Bull case

  • Current storm formation in the South China Sea points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Historical seasonal base rate could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current storm formation in the South China SeaHistorical seasonal base rate

Related markets

๐ŸŒŠWeather

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes35%-0
No65%-6
เธฟ766.2K vol
333
๐ŸŒ€Weather

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes49%-5
No51%+4
เธฟ534.4K vol
159
๐ŸŒŠWeather

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes42%-4
No58%-4
เธฟ501K vol
312
๐ŸŒŠWeatherAI

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes37%-5
No63%+3
เธฟ417.7K vol
85
๐ŸŒ€Weather

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes37%+3
No63%-5
เธฟ293.5K vol
287

Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŽ†

Weerapong Wongsawangยท 19h

This aged well

8 replies
๐Ÿต๏ธ

Pimchanok Sombatยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

5 replies