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Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Monsoon severity tracker.

42.0%

Jul 5, 12:27 PM

เธฟ501K total volume 312 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 42%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being chao phraya river levels.

Confidence in current pricing73%

Bull case

  • Chao Phraya river levels points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Rainfall versus 10-year average could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Chao Phraya river levelsRainfall versus 10-year average

Related news

NNikkei Asiaยท 2d

Here's what changed overnight on will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season

Independent analysts remain divided, citing conflicting signals from the last two weeks of reporting.

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?42%

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Comments

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Orawan Chaiyapornยท 22h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Weerapong Wongsawangยท 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

6 replies
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Teerapat Praditpongยท 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

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Pimchanok Chaiyapornยท 2d

Bought more on the dip

3 replies