Weather

๐ŸŒŠ

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Monsoon severity tracker.

37.0%

Jul 5, 12:39 PM

เธฟ417.7K total volume 85 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 37%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being chao phraya river levels.

Confidence in current pricing89%

Bull case

  • Chao Phraya river levels points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Rainfall versus 10-year average could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Chao Phraya river levelsRainfall versus 10-year average

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