Weather

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Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Storm track prediction.

37.0%

Jul 5, 12:41 PM

เธฟ293.5K total volume 287 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 37%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current storm formation in the south china sea.

Confidence in current pricing78%

Bull case

  • Current storm formation in the South China Sea points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Historical seasonal base rate could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current storm formation in the South China SeaHistorical seasonal base rate

Related news

TThe Nationยท 1d

What to know before will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season

The move follows a string of related developments that market watchers say were underpriced.

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?37%

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