Weather

๐ŸŒŠ

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Monsoon severity tracker.

35.0%

Jul 5, 12:40 PM

เธฟ766.2K total volume 333 comments

AI Summary

Updated 59m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 35%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being chao phraya river levels.

Confidence in current pricing68%

Bull case

  • Chao Phraya river levels points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Rainfall versus 10-year average could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Chao Phraya river levelsRainfall versus 10-year average

Related markets

๐ŸŒ€Weather

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes49%-5
No51%+4
เธฟ534.4K vol
159
๐ŸŒŠWeather

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes42%-4
No58%-4
เธฟ501K vol
312
๐ŸŒ€WeatherAI

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes32%+5
No68%-5
เธฟ431.4K vol
116
๐ŸŒŠWeatherAI

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes37%-5
No63%+3
เธฟ417.7K vol
85
๐ŸŒ€Weather

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes37%+3
No63%-5
เธฟ293.5K vol
287

Comments

๐Ÿชท

No comments yet. Be the first to share your take.