Entertainment

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Will a Thai film win an award at a major international film festival this year?

International recognition watch.

36.0%

Jul 5, 12:27 PM

เธฟ106.1K total volume 228 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 36%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being festival lineup announcements.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Festival lineup announcements points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Critical reception at premieres could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Festival lineup announcementsCritical reception at premieres

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
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Nichakan Amnuayยท 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

1 replies
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Ladda Jaideeยท 3d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

4 replies