Festivals

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Will Awakening Festival draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

47.0%

Jul 5, 12:42 PM

เธฟ442K total volume 293 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 47%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing76%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
โ˜€๏ธ

Napat Peerananยท 3d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

10 replies
โ˜€๏ธ

Napat Peerananยท 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

2 replies