Festivals

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Will Loy Krathong draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

46.0%

Jul 5, 12:37 PM

เธฟ663.8K total volume 255 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 46%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

Related news

BBangkok Postยท 2h

New data moves the needle on will Loy Krathong draw a record crowd this year

Independent analysts remain divided, citing conflicting signals from the last two weeks of reporting.

Will Loy Krathong draw a record crowd this year?46%

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
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Apinya Boonmeeยท 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

3 replies
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Preecha Ruangritยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐Ÿต๏ธ

Pimchanok Sombatยท 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

๐Ÿ›บ

Weerapong Ruangritยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

3 replies
๐Ÿฆœ

Worawit Pattaranutapornยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

๐ŸŒพ

Anong Ruangritยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

๐Ÿ›บ

Suriya Chotirosseraneeยท 3d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry