Festivals

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Will Yi Peng Lantern Festival draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

37.0%

Jul 5, 12:35 PM

เธฟ704.1K total volume 234 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 37%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing93%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

Related news

CCoconuts Bangkokยท 2d

Traders react as odds shift on: Will Yi Peng Lantern Festival draw a record crowd this year?

A second independent source has now corroborated the initial report, adding confidence to the read.

Will Yi Peng Lantern Festival draw a record crowd this year?37%

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Comments

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Chalermchai Kittiyaยท 2h

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

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Suchada Wongsawangยท 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

GIF
1 replies
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Ampai Kanjanapasยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Suriya Wongprasertยท 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

GIF
2 replies
โ˜€๏ธ

Chanya Thongchaiยท 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

5 replies
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Patcharee Amnuayยท 3d

This aged well

3 replies
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Duangjai Amnuayยท 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

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Napat Rattanakosinยท 4d

Bought more on the dip