Crypto

🪙

Will Bitcoin trade above 1.1x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

36.0%

Jul 5, 12:26 PM

฿36.3M total volume 179 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 36%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing79%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

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🎆

Kamon Thongchai· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🐘

Kwan Lohachai· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

5 replies
🐢

Preecha Ruangrit· 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

GIF
6 replies