Crypto

🪙

Will Bitcoin trade above 1.1x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

60.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

฿50.2M total volume 325 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 60%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing81%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

Related news

BBangkok Post· 20h

Traders react as odds shift on: Will Bitcoin trade above 1.1x its price from 30 days ago?

Local reporting adds context that could reshape expectations heading into the resolution window.

Will Bitcoin trade above 1.1x its price from 30 days ago?60%

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Comments

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🌙

Chayapa Kittiya· 1d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🏵️

Patcharee Pattaranutaporn· 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

GIF
2 replies
🛺

Weerapong Ruangrit· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

3 replies