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Will Solana trade below 0.9x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

36.0%

Jul 5, 12:29 PM

฿51.6M total volume 161 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 36%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing79%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

🪷
🍜

Waraporn Srisawat· 10h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

2 replies
🥭

Rungnapha Suksawat· 1d

This aged... not great

🛕

Ratana Boonmee· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

3 replies
🏝️

Nirun Nakornthap· 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

🥭

Ampai Kanjanapas· 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🏵️

Ampai Srisawat· 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

GIF
🏝️

Nirun Nakornthap· 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market