Crypto

🪙

Will Dogecoin trade above 1.1x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

35.0%

Jul 5, 12:27 PM

฿44.5M total volume 40 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 35%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing80%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

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🏵️

Pimchanok Sombat· 14h

Volume just spiked, something's moving

🏵️

Pimchanok Sombat· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

GIF
🏵️

Sakda Rattanakosin· 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🥁

Yupa Aksorn· 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

3 replies
🌊

Patcharee Lohachai· 2d

Bought more on the dip

🏵️

Chotiwut Sombat· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🐘

Kwan Lohachai· 3d

This aged well