Crypto

🪙

Will BNB trade below 0.85x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

40.0%

Jul 5, 12:28 PM

฿8.3M total volume 152 comments

AI Summary

Updated 14m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 40%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing81%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

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🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 1h

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🐘

Kwan Lohachai· 11h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🌾

Malee Sombat· 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

2 replies
🦋

Patcharee Jaidee· 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

🐢

Suchada Charoenkul· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

1 replies
🌙

Weerapong Tantivejkul· 2d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

2 replies
🥁

Kamon Chotirosseranee· 3d

This aged well

🦋

Somsak Sombat· 3d

This aged... not great

🌊

Kamon Thongchai· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

🌊

Orawan Kanjanapas· 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

2 replies
🦜

Anong Sirikaya· 4d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+