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Will Chiang Mai's air quality index exceed 150 (unhealthy) during burning season?

Northern haze season market.

76.0%

Jul 5, 12:45 PM

เธฟ117.2K total volume 198 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 76%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being cross-border crop burning reports.

Confidence in current pricing72%

Bull case

  • Cross-border crop burning reports points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Wind direction forecasts could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Cross-border crop burning reportsWind direction forecasts

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŒŠ

Sakda Tantivejkulยท 1d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

1 replies
๐Ÿฆ‹

Duangjai Sirikayaยท 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this