Festivals

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Will Chinese New Year (Yaowarat) draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

53.0%

Jul 5, 12:31 PM

เธฟ376.7K total volume 189 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 53%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing83%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
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Napat Peerananยท 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

7 replies
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Kamon Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

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Chotiwut Wongprasertยท 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

GIF
2 replies
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Patcharee Amnuayยท 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Kamon Thongchaiยท 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

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Napat Peerananยท 3d

This aged well