Thailand Politics

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Will Deputy PM Kittipong Suriyachai survive a no-confidence motion this session?

Parliamentary vote outcome.

79.0%

Jul 5, 12:37 PM

฿512.5K total volume 276 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 79%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being whip discipline within the coalition.

Confidence in current pricing91%

Bull case

  • Whip discipline within the coalition points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Opposition unity on the motion could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Whip discipline within the coalitionOpposition unity on the motion

Related news

TThai PBS World· 1d

New data moves the needle on will Deputy PM Kittipong Suriyachai survive a no-confidence motion this session

A second independent source has now corroborated the initial report, adding confidence to the read.

Will Deputy PM Kittipong Suriyachai survive a no-confidence motion this session?79%

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Comments

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Panupong Thongchai· 14h

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

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Suriya Wongprasert· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

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Sakda Rattanakosin· 2d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

2 replies
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Preecha Chaiyaporn· 2d

This aged... not great

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Patcharee Lohachai· 3d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

3 replies