Crypto

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Will Ethereum trade above 1.5x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

39.0%

Jul 5, 12:26 PM

฿22.6M total volume 77 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 39%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing83%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

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Duangjai Sirikaya· 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

🥭

Duangjai Amnuay· 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this