Crypto

🪙Live

Will Ethereum trade above 1.5x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

38.0%

Jul 5, 12:28 PM

฿17.7M total volume 197 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 38%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing83%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

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Comments

🪷
🏵️

Anucha Aksorn· 5h

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

2 replies
🛕

Ratana Boonmee· 2d

This aged well

5 replies
🐘

Napat Phromwong· 2d

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

🍜

Duangjai Charoenkul· 2d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

3 replies
🪷

Darika Suksawat· 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

8 replies
🏵️

Teerapat Nakornthap· 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+