Asia

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Will Indonesia announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year?

ASEAN diplomacy tracker.

43.0%

Jul 5, 12:45 PM

เธฟ48.4K total volume 332 comments

AI Summary

Updated 59m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 43%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent bilateral summit tone.

Confidence in current pricing59%

Bull case

  • Recent bilateral summit tone points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Regional trade bloc momentum could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent bilateral summit toneRegional trade bloc momentum

Related news

RReutersยท 1d

What to know before will Indonesia announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year

The move follows a string of related developments that market watchers say were underpriced.

Will Indonesia announce a new trade agreement with Thailand this year?43%

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Comments

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Suriya Chotirosseraneeยท 1h

Bought more on the dip

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Weerapong Boonmeeยท 4h

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Pongsakorn Chaiyapornยท 8h

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Suchada Suksawatยท 12h

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

8 replies
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Napat Peerananยท 17h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

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Nattapong Rattanakosinยท 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

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Napat Rattanakosinยท 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

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Duangjai Sirikayaยท 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

5 replies
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Duangjai Kittiyaยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Nutthida Peerananยท 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

GIF
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Chalermchai Lohachaiยท 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

1 replies
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Suchada Suksawatยท 2d

This aged... not great

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Suchada Sombatยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

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Nirun Nakornthapยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

3 replies
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Pimchanok Lohachaiยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Preecha Ruangritยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Nutthida Peerananยท 3d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

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Pimchanok Lohachaiยท 3d

This aged... not great

1 replies