Weather

๐ŸŒก๏ธ

Will Khon Kaen hit 42ยฐC or higher this week?

Thai Meteorological Department forecast market.

28.0%

Jul 5, 12:41 PM

เธฟ26.4K total volume 310 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 28%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current heat index trend.

Confidence in current pricing91%

Bull case

  • Current heat index trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • El Nino / La Nina phase could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current heat index trendEl Nino / La Nina phase

Related markets

๐ŸŒŠWeather

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes35%-0
No65%-6
เธฟ766.2K vol
333
๐ŸŒ€Weather

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes49%-5
No51%+4
เธฟ534.4K vol
159
๐ŸŒŠWeather

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes42%-4
No58%-4
เธฟ501K vol
312
๐ŸŒ€WeatherAI

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Yes32%+5
No68%-5
เธฟ431.4K vol
116
๐ŸŒŠWeatherAI

Will Bangkok see flooding severe enough to close a BTS station this monsoon season?

Yes37%-5
No63%+3
เธฟ417.7K vol
85

Comments

๐Ÿชท

No comments yet. Be the first to share your take.